Sunday, November 29, 2009

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.12

Well I am back after contemplating my betting life after a few tough weeks. It's amazing how fortunes can turn, look at the Giants who started 5-0 and are now awful. It is amazing to me that a starting NFL safety can not read play action. I am looking directly at you C.C. Brown. It seems that the Giants just forgot how to play defense, missed tackles, and blown coverages are things the Browns should be doing not the Giants. If I'm Bill Sheridan or Kevin Gilbride I'd start negotiating Realtor fees because you two should not be back next year after the suck ass performances of the past weeks.

Some Quick Thoughts:
How can the NFL Network think having Matt Millen in the booth on Thursday nights is a good idea?

Is Vince Young really back, did he learn enough from the drunk racist to not break down again?

Notre Dame, you are really bad at tackling on defense.

Did Colt McCoy win the Heisman with his performance on Thursday night?

The picks this week:

Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis
Minnesota -10 vs. Chicago
San Francisco -3 vs. Jacksonville
Atlanta -12 vs. Tampa Bay
St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle

Friday, November 20, 2009

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 12

Still treading water, its a good thing I've made like the Illini and checked out for the year. However, I've got a little money line streak going (2 in a row) so maybe I've found my late season niche.

Tennessee - 17 vs Vanderbilt
It's been a tough seven days from the Vols, but a visit from the SEC's worst is just what the doctor ordered. A few weeks ago this team was arguably the 3rd best team in the league and aside from two unimportant freshman this is the same squad led a coach with a continually growing chip on his shoulder. The punishing D won't give up a thing to a struggling Vanderbilt offense and QB Jonathan Crompton will continue his impressive senior season. The O/U on Eric Berry layouts is 2 1/2, I'm throwing it all on the O.

Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 6

Rutgers -8.5 @ Syracuse
It's been the formula the past two seasons for the Scarlet Knights - start slow enough to remain under the radar and put yourself in position to cover favorable spreads. The Knights have won 6 of 7 and keep getting stronger, starting with QB Tom Savage. The defense is playing at an extremely high level and I expect they'll keep it up against the punch-less orange. It won't be very exciting but Rutgers will control the game and pick up the W convincingly.

Rutgers 24, Syracuse 13

Notre Dame -6 vs UConn
The embattled Irish have once again flopped, but lets not forget they still boast one of the most talented and productive offenses in the country. Jimmy Clausen should have little problem picking apart a Husky secondary ranked 96th in the country and emotionally drained after the death of Jasper Howard. UConn presents a challenging running game, but Notre Dame's D is due for a decent effort after their recent pathetic efforts. The home field is huge in this one which is outside of UConn's comfort zone.

Notre Dame 34, UConn 23

Purdue -3 @ Indiana
Purdue's been up and down but what an entertaining year it's been. Joey Elliot can make a case for 1st team all Big 10 and he'll show up in a big way in his final game. This will be an entertaining game, but just like every other game, IU will find a way to lose. It's a good thing Joe Tiller will be in Wyoming on Saturday, Danny Hope isn't going to start his career 0-1 versus the least successful program in FBS history. The over (hovering around 60) is probably safe here as well.

Purdue 41, Indiana 31

Stretching for a Triple

Kentucky +310 vs Georgia
Rich Brooks isn't foreign to shocking the southeast, and this year's version of the Cats has what it take against a worse-than-normal Georgia team. HBs Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb combine to form a unit averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground, and Georgia hasn't exactly been stout against the run. The defense is also playing at a very high level, especially against the pass, ranking 34th in the country. Kentucky has quietly won 4 of 5 heading into this one. Make it 5 for 6 and their signature win of the season.

Kentucky 24, Georgia 23

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.10

Coming back this week after a restful bye weekend I can promise I won't throw five picks like Jay Cutler did on Thursday night.

Let's get to those picks...

Denver -4 at Washington

Baltimore -11 at The Cleve
Ray Rice is projected to score 24 points in my fantasy football league this week. That's more than AP who plays at home against the Lions.

Pittsburgh -7 vs Cincinnati
Dallas -3 at Green Bay

Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 11

Classic format until bowl season. It's gotten so lean I'm yearning for the "glory days" of 2007.

Kentucky - 3.5 @ Vanderbilt
The Cats are better than their 5-4 record would indicate and tend to take care of the teams that they should. The running game (191 yd/game) shouldn't have a problem getting going against the Commodores below average front seven. The D can hold it's own too and won't be challenged by an offense that puts up a shade below 17 points per game. For the Commodores, this is a down year for a school that's hardly a football factory. Kentucky needs this one to go bowling and won't let their guard down when crossing the state line.

Kentucky 37, Vanderbilt 21

Utah +19.5 @ TCU
TCU is a complete team and has demolished all in its path thus far. But let's not forget that Utah won the Sugar Bowl last year and that the Mountain West still goes through the Great Salt Lake. This team still puts up 30 points a game and gives up less than 300 en route to an 8-1 record. Kyle Whittingham will have his guys ready to play at their highest level. All these points are an early Christmas present, Frogs will not go through the regular season unchallenged.

TCU 24, Utah 17

Arkansas -13.5 vs Troy
This season's Arkansas has been a bettor's dream - run up the score against inferior opponents, get sent packing against good defenses. While we all love the men of Troy's penchant for covering the spread, this is not a good matchup for them. Ryan Mallett destroys secondaries outside of the SEC, and the defense has been playing better than expected. The Hogs still have a lot to prove as the new kid on the block, and you know how Petrino feels about sportsmanship.

Arkansas 48, Troy 24

Boston College -4.5 @ Virginia
Its that time of the year when many team's (and coaches) fates have been decided. BC has overachieved greatly this year and still has a shot to go to the conference championship game. Their 25 year old quarterback is literally a man amongst boys and there's not a chance he can rattled like a 22 year old. We all know the sad state of Al Groh, and like 2008, 2009 is shaping into a bell curve where Halloween continues into November. The season is over for the Cavaliers, they're looking to close the book on this season as soon as possible.

Boston College 27, Virginia 14

Florida St +170 @ Wake Forest
I think I'm 0-fer picking the Seminoles on the blog. One of these Saturdays old man Bowden will wake up, think it's 1994, and lead his team to a beatdown.

Friday, November 6, 2009

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 10

You did what I suggested and put all of your earnings on SMU +650 right? I knew June Jones would finally come around for me, no thanks to Bo Levi. Other than that pretty flat. Mark Cuban must have had Iowa -17.5 and threatened to pull his contributions from Indiana University, I have no other justification for what happened to that garbage team.

West Virginia - 17 vs Louisville Great game for Jarret Brown and Noel Devine to right the ship, Louisville is a bad team and bad teams don't play well on the road in November.

Wisconsin -10.5 @ Indiana Physical Badgers are underrated and sound in all aspects, Hoosiers still aren't recovered from last week's meltdown

Miami -13.5 vs Virginia Big comeback last week will provide Canes the boost they need to defend their turf with a vengeance, Groh has run out of stingers and his time is done.

Texas A&M -3 @ Colorado Aggies finally playing like the team I've been waiting for, Buffaloes can't hang in a shootout

Duke +10 @ North Carolina Cutcliffe's crew has never let me down, always plays great as dogs, and this game has conference implications.

LSU +7.5 @ Alabama Tigers are playing the best they have since 2007, Greg McElroy is proving that he's still green. Feels like a 20-17 game.

UTEP -6.5 @ Tulane Yo-yo Miners have a newfound gem at running back and have an experienced QB, Tulane has too many holes to win if UTEP doesn't implode.

Kansas -2.5 @ Kansas St Jayhawks's seniors have never lost to KSU, bad matchup for Wildcats as Reesing should pick apart their secondary. Jayhawks are due.

Tennessee -25.5 vs Memphis Things have tipped for the Volunteers, beating down porous Memphis will just add to their growing confidence. Crompton seems to have finally figured things out.

FSU +9.5 @ Clemson Christian Ponder has been awesome this year, he'll keep up in what looks like a shootout.

Houston -1.5 @ Tulsa This is Keenum's Heisman year - ride this train.

Nevada -13.5 @ San Jose St (Sunday) Kaepernick and the Wolfpack are tearing up the WAC, depleted Spartan's can't stop the run, how can they hang in this matchup?

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.8

We are slowing approaching the mid point of the season and it is clear that there are some awful teams in the NFL this year. It amazes me how some teams can be bad year in and year out.

The Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, and the Oakland Raiders are horrible and it all starts at the top. Until these teams move out of town and a new owner comes in to place these teams are not going to be good with the exception of the Buccaneers and Rams the other three teams are garbage.

Picks:
Houston -3 at Buffalo
New York Jets -3 vs. Miami
Dallas -9.5 vs. Seattle
Arizona -10 vs. Carolina
New York Giants -1.5 at Philadelphia

Sunday, October 25, 2009

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 9

A bittersweet 4-3 last week, but can't be too upset about making a few bucks. Might have been 5-2 had it not been for another award-winning performance from Beau (go to to 0:39 in).


June Jones might want to consider starting his teenage daughter next week, I think she'd give SMU a better chance to win.

Also, special thanks to Miami (OH) for throwing in a garbage touchdown on the last play to kill the spread against Northern Illinois. I hope those worthless points remove the sting of being 0-8, Redhawks.

YTD Results (ATS and O/U)
It's been a very odd year. The SEC is playing out as it's supposed to, while my bread and butter Big 10 has abandoned me. The only thing that's remained the same is the ACC money pit. I've combined the Mountain West and WAC because I still can't tell the difference between these two.
  • SEC 9-1
  • Mtn West/WAC 4-1
  • Big 10 3-7
  • ACC 1-6
Picks
Rutgers +7.5 @ UConn
I'm leading off with the Knights again after they took care of business last week. This is a team on the rise (winning 5 of 6) led by a solid D and an improving young quarterback. It's hasn't exactly been profitable to bet against UConn this year (7-0) but they have to lose ATS once - right ?

USC - 3 @ Oregon
The winner of this game takes the Pac-10, and there hasn't been a better program in the country in games like this over the last decade than the Trojans. The Ducks can run the ball but they're going up against a challenged and extremely talented USC defense. USC's running backs should be able to get theirs against an underwhelming Ducks front. On intangibles alone, I'm playing the Trojans until they're dethroned as Pac 10 dictators.

Florida -14.5 vs. Georgia
The Gators have been keeping things close lately, but let's not forget this is still the best defense in the country and the offense isn't too far behind. Tebow has gotten his mistakes out of the way the past few weeks, and he'll be back to his crisp self. This isn't Stafford's Georgia, Joe Cox is makeshift at best and this isn't one of Richt's better teams. Gators control this one from the start.

Nebraska - 13 @ Baylor
The Huskers have laid two eggs in a row and here's assuming that Bo Pelini isn't going to allow a 3rd. The defense is still absurdly good, and shouldn't have much issue with a Baylor offense deep in the red. An easy road game is just what Nebraska needs right now to get back on track for the rest of the season.

Duke +7.5 @ Virginia
Thus far David Cutcliffe's Blue Devils have been the one team exempt (2-0) from my ACC curse. Couple that with an on-fire Thad Lewis, a touchdown and a hook and I like my chances of going 3-0. If this season is anything like last for Groh, the Cavs are heading downhill towards another poor ending.

Michigan -7 @ Illinois
We'd all be closing on summer homes if we'd just followed our gut and bet against Zook this season, but I'm thinking the ship hasn't sailed. This team is in dissarray, and are already preparing for next year. Michigan isn't there yet with the top of the class in the Big 10, but they've got a lot to prove and you know how Rich Rod feels about the spread.

Indiana +17.5 @ Iowa
I never thought the day would come where I'd be promoting the Hoosiers, but I've won games on Florida International and Western Kentucky so maybe the time has come. Indiana's not nearly as pitiful as usual (5-2 ATS) and will bring their A-game to Kinnick to take on the beaten up Hawks. Iowa won't get fancy with this one and will be glad to do the minimum and put this one in the rearview.

Georgia Tech -12.5 @ Vanderbilt
It's been a long season for the overwhelmed Commodores and it's not about to get any easier with the triple option coming to town. One week won't be enough for the defense to prepare, and even if they play well Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball, which they've struggled to do all year. Dwyer and company roll on this business trip.

Cal -6.5 @ Arizona State
Since taking dual shelackings from USC and Oregon and dropping off the map, Cal has gotten themselves together and knocked around UCLA and Washington State. Jahvid Best and company are playing like the Top 10 team they were when they started the season and should be able to continue to hot streak against Arizona State.

Houston -6.5 vs Southern Miss
Keenum, at home, one score? This is Houston's year, they're not going to let Southern Miss spoil the party.

Off the Record
SMU +650 @ Tulsa
Ah, the irony. I'm fairly sure my nemesis will somehow find a way to blow this, but SMU can legitimately win this game, and there's not many payouts like this where that's the case. Turn $30 into $200, you've got nothing to lose.