The N.A.D.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.12

2009-11-29T10:34:00.003-06:00

Well I am back after contemplating my betting life after a few tough weeks. It's amazing how fortunes can turn, look at the Giants who started 5-0 and are now awful. It is amazing to me that a starting NFL safety can not read play action. I am looking directly at you C.C. Brown. It seems that the Giants just forgot how to play defense, missed tackles, and blown coverages are things the Browns should be doing not the Giants. If I'm Bill Sheridan or Kevin Gilbride I'd start negotiating Realtor fees because you two should not be back next year after the suck ass performances of the past weeks.

Some Quick Thoughts:
How can the NFL Network think having Matt Millen in the booth on Thursday nights is a good idea?

Is Vince Young really back, did he learn enough from the drunk racist to not break down again?

Notre Dame, you are really bad at tackling on defense.

Did Colt McCoy win the Heisman with his performance on Thursday night?

The picks this week:

Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis
Minnesota -10 vs. Chicago
San Francisco -3 vs. Jacksonville
Atlanta -12 vs. Tampa Bay
St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 12

2009-11-20T23:31:00.009-06:00

Still treading water, its a good thing I've made like the Illini and checked out for the year. However, I've got a little money line streak going (2 in a row) so maybe I've found my late season niche.

Tennessee - 17 vs Vanderbilt

It's been a tough seven days from the Vols, but a visit from the SEC's worst is just what the doctor ordered. A few weeks ago this team was arguably the 3rd best team in the league and aside from two unimportant freshman this is the same squad led a coach with a continually growing chip on his shoulder. The punishing D won't give up a thing to a struggling Vanderbilt offense and QB Jonathan Crompton will continue his impressive senior season. The O/U on Eric Berry layouts is 2 1/2, I'm throwing it all on the O.

Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 6

Rutgers -8.5 @ Syracuse

It's been the formula the past two seasons for the Scarlet Knights - start slow enough to remain under the radar and put yourself in position to cover favorable spreads. The Knights have won 6 of 7 and keep getting stronger, starting with QB Tom Savage. The defense is playing at an extremely high level and I expect they'll keep it up against the punch-less orange. It won't be very exciting but Rutgers will control the game and pick up the W convincingly.

Rutgers 24, Syracuse 13

Notre Dame -6 vs UConn

The embattled Irish have once again flopped, but lets not forget they still boast one of the most talented and productive offenses in the country. Jimmy Clausen should have little problem picking apart a Husky secondary ranked 96th in the country and emotionally drained after the death of Jasper Howard. UConn presents a challenging running game, but Notre Dame's D is due for a decent effort after their recent pathetic efforts. The home field is huge in this one which is outside of UConn's comfort zone.

Notre Dame 34, UConn 23

Purdue -3 @ Indiana

Purdue's been up and down but what an entertaining year it's been. Joey Elliot can make a case for 1st team all Big 10 and he'll show up in a big way in his final game. This will be an entertaining game, but just like every other game, IU will find a way to lose. It's a good thing Joe Tiller will be in Wyoming on Saturday, Danny Hope isn't going to start his career 0-1 versus the least successful program in FBS history. The over (hovering around 60) is probably safe here as well.

Purdue 41, Indiana 31

Stretching for a Triple

Kentucky +310 vs Georgia

Rich Brooks isn't foreign to shocking the southeast, and this year's version of the Cats has what it take against a worse-than-normal Georgia team. HBs Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb combine to form a unit averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground, and Georgia hasn't exactly been stout against the run. The defense is also playing at a very high level, especially against the pass, ranking 34th in the country. Kentucky has quietly won 4 of 5 heading into this one. Make it 5 for 6 and their signature win of the season.

Kentucky 24, Georgia 23

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.10

2009-11-14T21:58:00.003-06:00

Coming back this week after a restful bye weekend I can promise I won't throw five picks like Jay Cutler did on Thursday night.

Let's get to those picks...

Denver -4 at Washington

Baltimore -11 at The Cleve
Ray Rice is projected to score 24 points in my fantasy football league this week. That's more than AP who plays at home against the Lions.

Pittsburgh -7 vs Cincinnati
Dallas -3 at Green Bay

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 11

2009-11-12T12:15:00.008-06:00

Classic format until bowl season. It's gotten so lean I'm yearning for the "glory days" of 2007.

Kentucky - 3.5 @ Vanderbilt

The Cats are better than their 5-4 record would indicate and tend to take care of the teams that they should. The running game (191 yd/game) shouldn't have a problem getting going against the Commodores below average front seven. The D can hold it's own too and won't be challenged by an offense that puts up a shade below 17 points per game. For the Commodores, this is a down year for a school that's hardly a football factory. Kentucky needs this one to go bowling and won't let their guard down when crossing the state line.

Kentucky 37, Vanderbilt 21

Utah +19.5 @ TCU

TCU is a complete team and has demolished all in its path thus far. But let's not forget that Utah won the Sugar Bowl last year and that the Mountain West still goes through the Great Salt Lake. This team still puts up 30 points a game and gives up less than 300 en route to an 8-1 record. Kyle Whittingham will have his guys ready to play at their highest level. All these points are an early Christmas present, Frogs will not go through the regular season unchallenged.

TCU 24, Utah 17

Arkansas -13.5 vs Troy

This season's Arkansas has been a bettor's dream - run up the score against inferior opponents, get sent packing against good defenses. While we all love the men of Troy's penchant for covering the spread, this is not a good matchup for them. Ryan Mallett destroys secondaries outside of the SEC, and the defense has been playing better than expected. The Hogs still have a lot to prove as the new kid on the block, and you know how Petrino feels about sportsmanship.

Arkansas 48, Troy 24

Boston College -4.5 @ Virginia

Its that time of the year when many team's (and coaches) fates have been decided. BC has overachieved greatly this year and still has a shot to go to the conference championship game. Their 25 year old quarterback is literally a man amongst boys and there's not a chance he can rattled like a 22 year old. We all know the sad state of Al Groh, and like 2008, 2009 is shaping into a bell curve where Halloween continues into November. The season is over for the Cavaliers, they're looking to close the book on this season as soon as possible.

Boston College 27, Virginia 14

Florida St +170 @ Wake Forest

I think I'm 0-fer picking the Seminoles on the blog. One of these Saturdays old man Bowden will wake up, think it's 1994, and lead his team to a beatdown.

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 10

2009-11-06T16:36:00.011-06:00

You did what I suggested and put all of your earnings on SMU +650 right? I knew June Jones would finally come around for me, no thanks to Bo Levi. Other than that pretty flat. Mark Cuban must have had Iowa -17.5 and threatened to pull his contributions from Indiana University, I have no other justification for what happened to that garbage team.

West Virginia - 17 vs Louisville Great game for Jarret Brown and Noel Devine to right the ship, Louisville is a bad team and bad teams don't play well on the road in November.

Wisconsin -10.5 @ Indiana Physical Badgers are underrated and sound in all aspects, Hoosiers still aren't recovered from last week's meltdown

Miami -13.5 vs Virginia Big comeback last week will provide Canes the boost they need to defend their turf with a vengeance, Groh has run out of stingers and his time is done.

Texas A&M -3 @ Colorado Aggies finally playing like the team I've been waiting for, Buffaloes can't hang in a shootout

Duke +10 @ North Carolina Cutcliffe's crew has never let me down, always plays great as dogs, and this game has conference implications.

LSU +7.5 @ Alabama Tigers are playing the best they have since 2007, Greg McElroy is proving that he's still green. Feels like a 20-17 game.

UTEP -6.5 @ Tulane Yo-yo Miners have a newfound gem at running back and have an experienced QB, Tulane has too many holes to win if UTEP doesn't implode.

Kansas -2.5 @ Kansas St Jayhawks's seniors have never lost to KSU, bad matchup for Wildcats as Reesing should pick apart their secondary. Jayhawks are due.

Tennessee -25.5 vs Memphis Things have tipped for the Volunteers, beating down porous Memphis will just add to their growing confidence. Crompton seems to have finally figured things out.

FSU +9.5 @ Clemson Christian Ponder has been awesome this year, he'll keep up in what looks like a shootout.

Houston -1.5 @ Tulsa This is Keenum's Heisman year - ride this train.

Nevada -13.5 @ San Jose St (Sunday) Kaepernick and the Wolfpack are tearing up the WAC, depleted Spartan's can't stop the run, how can they hang in this matchup?

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.8

2009-11-01T09:38:00.002-06:00

We are slowing approaching the mid point of the season and it is clear that there are some awful teams in the NFL this year. It amazes me how some teams can be bad year in and year out.

The Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, and the Oakland Raiders are horrible and it all starts at the top. Until these teams move out of town and a new owner comes in to place these teams are not going to be good with the exception of the Buccaneers and Rams the other three teams are garbage.

Picks:
Houston -3 at Buffalo
New York Jets -3 vs. Miami
Dallas -9.5 vs. Seattle
Arizona -10 vs. Carolina
New York Giants -1.5 at Philadelphia

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 9

2009-10-25T19:16:00.027-05:00

A bittersweet 4-3 last week, but can't be too upset about making a few bucks. Might have been 5-2 had it not been for another award-winning performance from Beau (go to to 0:39 in).

June Jones might want to consider starting his teenage daughter next week, I think she'd give SMU a better chance to win.

Also, special thanks to Miami (OH) for throwing in a garbage touchdown on the last play to kill the spread against Northern Illinois. I hope those worthless points remove the sting of being 0-8, Redhawks.

YTD Results (ATS and O/U)

It's been a very odd year. The SEC is playing out as it's supposed to, while my bread and butter Big 10 has abandoned me. The only thing that's remained the same is the ACC money pit. I've combined the Mountain West and WAC because I still can't tell the difference between these two.

SEC 9-1
Mtn West/WAC 4-1
Big 10 3-7
ACC 1-6

Picks

Rutgers +7.5 @ UConn

I'm leading off with the Knights again after they took care of business last week. This is a team on the rise (winning 5 of 6) led by a solid D and an improving young quarterback. It's hasn't exactly been profitable to bet against UConn this year (7-0) but they have to lose ATS once - right ?

USC - 3 @ Oregon

The winner of this game takes the Pac-10, and there hasn't been a better program in the country in games like this over the last decade than the Trojans. The Ducks can run the ball but they're going up against a challenged and extremely talented USC defense. USC's running backs should be able to get theirs against an underwhelming Ducks front. On intangibles alone, I'm playing the Trojans until they're dethroned as Pac 10 dictators.

Florida -14.5 vs. Georgia

The Gators have been keeping things close lately, but let's not forget this is still the best defense in the country and the offense isn't too far behind. Tebow has gotten his mistakes out of the way the past few weeks, and he'll be back to his crisp self. This isn't Stafford's Georgia, Joe Cox is makeshift at best and this isn't one of Richt's better teams. Gators control this one from the start.

Nebraska - 13 @ Baylor

The Huskers have laid two eggs in a row and here's assuming that Bo Pelini isn't going to allow a 3rd. The defense is still absurdly good, and shouldn't have much issue with a Baylor offense deep in the red. An easy road game is just what Nebraska needs right now to get back on track for the rest of the season.

Duke +7.5 @ Virginia

Thus far David Cutcliffe's Blue Devils have been the one team exempt (2-0) from my ACC curse. Couple that with an on-fire Thad Lewis, a touchdown and a hook and I like my chances of going 3-0. If this season is anything like last for Groh, the Cavs are heading downhill towards another poor ending.

Michigan -7 @ Illinois

We'd all be closing on summer homes if we'd just followed our gut and bet against Zook this season, but I'm thinking the ship hasn't sailed. This team is in dissarray, and are already preparing for next year. Michigan isn't there yet with the top of the class in the Big 10, but they've got a lot to prove and you know how Rich Rod feels about the spread.

Indiana +17.5 @ Iowa

I never thought the day would come where I'd be promoting the Hoosiers, but I've won games on Florida International and Western Kentucky so maybe the time has come. Indiana's not nearly as pitiful as usual (5-2 ATS) and will bring their A-game to Kinnick to take on the beaten up Hawks. Iowa won't get fancy with this one and will be glad to do the minimum and put this one in the rearview.

Georgia Tech -12.5 @ Vanderbilt

It's been a long season for the overwhelmed Commodores and it's not about to get any easier with the triple option coming to town. One week won't be enough for the defense to prepare, and even if they play well Vandy's offense won't be able to move the ball, which they've struggled to do all year. Dwyer and company roll on this business trip.

Cal -6.5 @ Arizona State

Since taking dual shelackings from USC and Oregon and dropping off the map, Cal has gotten themselves together and knocked around UCLA and Washington State. Jahvid Best and company are playing like the Top 10 team they were when they started the season and should be able to continue to hot streak against Arizona State.

Houston -6.5 vs Southern Miss

Keenum, at home, one score? This is Houston's year, they're not going to let Southern Miss spoil the party.

Off the Record

SMU +650 @ Tulsa

Ah, the irony. I'm fairly sure my nemesis will somehow find a way to blow this, but SMU can legitimately win this game, and there's not many payouts like this where that's the case. Turn $30 into $200, you've got nothing to lose.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.7

2009-10-25T09:40:00.002-05:00

Well after my 1-4 for last week I hope to have a better week. At least I went 2-0 in my NLCS picks which helped ease the pain a little bit. On to the picks this week.

Minnesota +6 at Pittsburgh
New Orleans -6 at Miami
Washington +7 vs Philadelphia
Green Bay -9 at Cleveland
Giants -7 vs Arizona

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 8

2009-10-23T16:04:00.005-05:00

Momentum-halting last week, but you're bound to get one of those in October. Late collapses from Washington and Stanford killed my money line bets (not to mention an injury to Sam Bradford), so I'm taking a week off from those to let the wounds heal properly. The bus will once again be headed north after Saturday.

Rutgers -10.5 @ Army (Friday)

The Scarlet Knights were picking up some steam before Wanny shut the door last week, but Rutgers and frosh QB Tom Savage are still on the way up to their peak. One-dimensional Army shouldn't be able to do much against a stout Rutgers run D, and the talent discrepancy on the other side of the ball will show. Scarlet Knights get back to business after last week.

Oklahoma St -9.5 @ Baylor

It's been an eventful and sometimes trying first half for Gundy's crew, but quietly this offense has been putting up points even without two of its biggest weapons. Baylor sans Robert Griffin is a shell of its former self, and can't compete with the talent across panhandle. Zac Robinson keeps the offense humming while the keeping his squad in contention for the Big 12 South title.

Mississippi St +23 vs Florida

The Bulldogs have an new identity and have been playing well, and with a night game at their place there's no better setup for Dan Mullens to show his old boss what he's capable of. The Gators have been going through the motions, and don't think for a second Urban Meyer isn't holding back the concussed-Tebow. Mullens and Meyer have worked together for years, so there's a Tresell/Tiller element at play here as well. This won't be an upset, but they'll cover this large spread.

Washington +10 vs Oregon

The Huskies have been very good at home, and are playing with a real chip on their shoulder this season. Jake Locker is the kind of player who can keep a team in a game by himself, and Sarkisian is the perfect coach for him. The Ducks have been playing very well but haven't been challenged for a few weeks and are due for a tough game. It's still uncertain if Jeromiah Masoli will play, and even if he does he might be a tad rusty.

Northern Illinois -11 @ Miami (OH)

My favorite mid-major is back to business in 2009 - pounding the rock, limiting turnovers, and winning football games. This team plays the right way and isn't going to mess around with Miami, one of the worst teams in FBS. After a tough loss last week, Northern will have their heads on straight and this will turn out to be a profitable business trip.

Tennessee +14.5 @ Alabama

If there's one thing that the Vols promise, its punishing defense. Alabama has been excellent so far but is hardly an offensive juggernaut. They've struggled in recent weeks and it won't stop this week. Vols QB Jonathan Crompton is finally playing like the 5 star recruit that he was, if he plays within himself the senior could finally show something for his storied career. Alabama has been awesome this year, but they're starting to give a few too many points. This game will play like an NFL game - physical and won't be won by more than 14.

SMU +16.5 @ Houston

This is the type of game June Jones was born to coach. SMU can hold it's own in a shootout, and they bring in a very opportunistic defense which forces turnovers. As long as dipshit QB doesn't throw two picks to the house in the 4th quarter, SMU will hang in. I love Houston more than anything but they've already proven they can lost to another wide open mid major from Texas. Keenum won't accept a loss here but they'll have to earn it.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.6

2009-10-18T09:37:00.002-05:00

Well it is unfortunate that Jerry Jones has come out and said Wade has a job for the rest of the year, I guess he's looking forward to going another year since 1996 to win a playoff game. How bout em?

The Giants with a big road game today in the Big Easy. The winner of this game looks like they could be in the drivers seat for the NFC because there's no way Brett Farve can continue to play like this, he's a 40-yr old man for God's sake.

Another good week last week going 3-1.

Let's get to the picks:
Cincinnati -5.5 vs. Houston - Ochocinco buys up 1200 tickets so the city of Northern Kentucky can watch them kill the Texans.

Homer Pick of the Week:
New York Giants +3 at New Orleans - I'm taking the money line too at +155, still not sure if its a good idea but I believe it is.

Philadelphia -15 at Oakland
Seattle -3 vs. Arizona
New England -9 vs. Tennessee

Hammerin Hank just said that double digit dogs are 2-8 ATS this year, wow.

Baseball Picks:
Cliff Lee over 5.5 Strikeouts

Philadelphia -170 vs. Los Angeles

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 7

2009-10-15T21:22:00.007-05:00

Just the picks this week....as agreed I have removed the ACC from my phone to prevent drunk dials.

Wisconsin -2.5 vs Iowa Badgers hold serve at home, it's time for the Hawks to fall.

Ohio St -14 @ Purdue Buckeyes cover this spread with points off turnovers alone.

Oklahoma +145 vs Texas My boy Bradford's back, call this one revenge from 2008.

Miss St -4.5 @ Mid Tenn St. Bulldogs are re-energized under Dan Mullen, SEC vs Sun Belt usually goes to former

Nevada -9.5 @ Utah State Wolfpack look to make it 3 in a row on the blog, no WAC defense can slow down Kaepernick and the pistol

Houston -17 @ Tulane Dome is made for air strike, Cougars won't mess around in this conference game

Texas A&M -6 @ Kansas St K-State not equipped to slow down Big 12 passing attacks

Florida vs Arkansas U54.5 Gators D will limit Mallett's production, Gators still taking it easy with Tebow

Stanford +170 @ Arizona Harbaugh's crew will be ready to go coming off loss, Arizona finds ways to lose

Washington +230 @ Arizona State Your money is in good hands with Sarkisian and Locker.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.5

2009-10-09T16:33:00.002-05:00

Another nice week last week going 4-1. I get giddy with the thought that if the Chiefs can win this week, Wade might be gone. I'm not a huge fan of the lines this week but lets see what we can do.

Picks for this week:
Minnesota -10 at St. Louis
Cleveland +6 at Buffalo
San Fran -2.5 vs Atlanta

If Eli plays
Giants -15 vs Oakland

Beat Southlake!

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 6

2009-10-08T11:51:00.012-05:00

I'm leaving the demons of September in the dust after a 6-3 start to October. Let's hope conference season turns out to be as fruitful as it was in '08. So far I've covered the vig and made a bit of bourbon money if you count the money lines. I'm done flirting with teams like Buffalo, Western Michigan, and UTEP. It's time to make some real cash.

The "I've seen enough Thursday night games to know what happens here" pick
Missouri +150 vs. Nebraska
If you've flipped to ESPN on a Thursday night during football season, you already know the angle. Home Team + Underdog + Conference Game = $$$. My advice is to play every Thursday night game where there is a home dog. You may not win them all, but you'll come out ahead.

The "I've been following Big 10 football for 20 years" pick
Michigan +7.5 @ Iowa
Sure, they're undefeated and took care of Penn State. But Iowa isn't anything special, and falls into the good-but-not-great plethora of Big 10 teams. Michigan also falls into that category, and with a loss behind them they're bound to bring Iowa back down to earth. I'm surprisedthis spread is more than TD, if I was flying high I'd probably take the ML but I'm just chipping away so give me the points and the hook.

The "Mid-Major all or nothing" pick
Nevada -10.5 vs Louisiana Tech (Friday Night)
After rolling for 774 yards of offense last week, it's safe to say Nevada is on the rise. It was a tough start to the year against some good competition (Notre Dame, Missouri), but they're about to take their frustrations out on the WAC and Mountain West. Nevada's offense is like the curious high school girl with overly strict parents; once she gets out of the house and moves to college, she goes over the top. In this case its Friday night of the second week of freshman year. Her meteoric rise to notoriety is just gaining momentum before the inevitable second semester crash.

The "Why do I continue to get drunk and hook up with this ugly girl" pick
Florida St -2.5 vs Georgia Tech
I probably win ACC games at a clip of about 20%. Every Sunday I ask myself why I laid money on Maryland or Clemson (and went 0-2) and vow to never do it again. Then, the lines come out and due to lack of better immediate options I get suckered in. This week is no exception. FSU is 1-3 ATS, backs are up against the wall. Bowden and Jimbo will pull this off...right? If I lose this - never again will I take a late night BJ from the ACC.

The "These Guys have been doing it for me for years" pick
Houston +2 @ Mississippi State
Cougar High is one of the reasons I'm making picks today, and QB Case Keenum is a case study for my strategy. The loss to UTEP was the best thing that could have happened to these guys as it will get them re-focused and motivate their defense. Miss St has a good running game but last time I checked, so does Oklahoma State and that didn't seem to matter. The D will play much better than they did last week and Keenum will do what he does.

The "Neuheisel was hired for this" pick
UCLA +140 vs Oregon
This is a typical setup for Oregon; they roll a couple of good teams at home, then hit the inner-conference road and get stymied. We've seen it happen every year to these guys and Slick Rick is the coach I want in this position. His Bruins play excellent defense and the home crowd should provide the extra element to put this one in the books.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.4

2009-10-02T17:35:00.002-05:00

Well that was a good week, 5-0! Those weeks don't come along to often but when they do you kick yourself for not laying a 5-team parlay paying out 25-1, but hey I'll take 5-0 any day.

There could be alot of shakeup in the NFC East this week, so if the Redskins lose to the hapless Bucs this week does that mean Dan Snyder will be firing Jim Zorn? What about Wade Phillips, will one more bad loss or bad hairdo send him with his bags packing so the Prodigal QB can take over?

Denver +3 vs. Dallas
Per Tony D, Romo's not a good QB, Wade Phillips is not a good coach on one side. Kyle Orton isn't that sweet and the jury is still out on Josh McDaniels, this game will be all about running.

Indianapolis -10.5 vs. Seattle
San Francisco -9.5 vs. St. Louis
Home games against these two NFC West powerhouses equal covers.

Cincinnati -6 at The Cleve
Do your job!

Giants -9 at Kansas City
The giants running game is going to run all over KC. Matt Cassell is going to get hit so hard he'll wish he was still on the bench at USC.

Lee's Locks
Tennessee -3 at Jacksonville
San Diego +6.5 at Pittsburgh
Denver +125 (ML) vs. Dallas

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 5

2009-10-01T12:03:00.041-05:00

Champions Prevail
USC -4.5 @ Cal
In college football, dethroning of a conference king goes beyond statistics (just ask Miami after last week). USC's defense is still unreal, the offense is loaded on talent, and Jeff Tedford is 1-6 vs. the Trojans.

Ohio St - 17 @ Indiana
After the loss to USC sent them to 1-1, Jim Tressel's play calling was called out as too conservative. Since then the Bucks have outscored two opponents 68-0. Think this team is motivated? The Hoosiers don't stand a chance, and The Rock will be publicly violated.

Buying Low
Nevada -4.5 vs UNLV
Last season they were 1-2 heading into this game and rolled the Rebels by 3 TDs (and that was on the road). These guys are due, especially with duel threat QB Colin Kaepernick having the ball in his hands.

Mississippi -9.5 @ Vanderbilt
I'm not sure Vanderbilt will be able to score. They've scored a whopping 9 and 3 points in SEC games and Miss has a nasty defense. Even if the Rebel's offense struggles they'll cover a TD and a field goal.

Florida State -4 @ Boston College
This is a frustrating yet predictable 'Noles team. They perform their best after underwhelming performances.

Seperate the bad from the worse
NC State +1 @ Wake Forest
There are few college QBs better than Russell Wilson (12 TDs, 0 INTS thus far) who is a dynamic passer as well as runner. Even the defense is coming to play, giving up a measly 201.3 yd/game (2nd in the country). This is an opportunity for the Wolfpack to separate themselves from the ACC's 2nd tier and I believe they'll take advantage of this situation.

Toledo -5.5 @ Ball State
Toledo has a decent, veteran offense and a rookie coach out to prove himself. The pantry is bare in Muncie. Trust me on this one.

Shoot 'em Up

Tulsa -15.5 @ Rice

Rice can't find a quarterback, and this point spread is Tulsa's bread and butter. Even Vanderbilt put up 35 on the Owls, what will Todd Graham's guys do?

Texas A&M vs Arkansas (Arlington) O66.5

I don't usually bet overs on games like this but I'm making an exception here. Both teams have shameless offenses while ignoring defense. Add the fact that it's in a neutral spot (Arlington) and has been dubbed the "Southwest Shootout" and there's no way you can convince me these teams don't score at least 5 TDs apiece.

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.3

2009-09-25T17:49:00.002-05:00

Not sure what happened to the picks last week, I asked out College Guru to post them, he must have been to busy worrying about his picks. Last week I was in Vegas, had a nice time actually betting at a window than online.

Baltimore -13 vs Cleveland
Cleveland sucks.

Road Games:
New Orleans -6 at Buffalo
Green Bay -6.5 at St. Louis
Chicago -1.5 at Seattle
Denver -1.5 at Oakland

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 4

2009-09-22T11:25:00.042-05:00

Public Enemy #1 - Bo Levi Mitchell

The board voted unanimously to lay 6 points with SMU last week, and with a 24-7 lead early in the 3rd quarter, the investment looked promising. Apparently we overlooked the fact that an over-matched, talent-less "gunslinger" was leading their offense. Rather than downing the ball 3 times and punting every possesion, Beau threw three INTs including TWO TO THE HOUSE (!) to give the game away. Keep in mind the difficulty of doing this against Washington State - we're talking about a high school team that probably gets knocked out by Tacoma Central in the state semi-finals. Hopefully next time we'll remember never to bet 2-star recruits whose decisions on the field are only rivaled by their poor choices of headgear.

= IDIOT

Auburn vs. West Virginia - Observations from a great game

1) I envy Auburn - How great would it be to be a fan of a team who can win games on their home field advantage alone? Auburn was outplayed on both sides of the ball on Saturday, yet their pedigree and home stadium provided the intangible element to pull this one out. I feel for West Virginia - in the Tiller era this type of thing happened to us countless times. Luckily the Bears win games like this all the time (sorry Steelers), and I love them for it.

2) Jarrett Brown is a man - I know he unfolded in the second half, but this guy looks like a really good college QB. He's big (6'4, 223) with speed, and can make throws too. Too bad this guy is a senior, I'd love to throw money on him for a few more years.

3) Gus Malzahan is a genius - Auburn's OC inherited an absolutely inept offense last year, and has turned them into a point scoring machine. Working with a QB with limited ability, this offense was able to overcome a 14 point lead and turn it into a win. Never in my life would I have thought Auburn capable of this.

4) It's nice to get bailed out for once - I can't take credit for this cover - but I'll take it.

After 3 weeks, here are some of the best and worst teams ATS.

Clemson 3-0 Dabo Swinney is a cool southern gentleman
Auburn 3-0 Team of the year so far
Northern Illinois 3-0 My local team of choice, I'd never play these guys if I were a BCS team
Nebraska 3-0 Easy to hate school and state, hard to hate Bo Pelini
Michigan 3-0 Rich Rod made his first million betting on West Virginia

Down

Notice a trend? Running up the score isn't what is used to be

Penn State 0-3 JoPa taking it easier on the scraps this season
Texas 0-3 Still woodshed beatings, just a little less blood
Utah 0-3 I told you the Utes would be getting too many points
Maryland 0-3 I will never bet another Maryland game - enigma to the extreme

Picks

Michigan -21 vs. Indiana

The Wolverines are back, and Indiana is overmatched. Michigan played poorly last week and still managed to cover. In a middle-heavy Big 10, IU is the only terrible team. Michigan will be ready to start the Big 10 season with a bang.

Oregon St -1.5 vs Arizona

It's usually this time of year that Mike Riley's Beavers get serious about football, and they're not about to let a home game against a peer opponent slip away. The Beavers find ways to win games like this by pounding the run and limiting mistakes, and they're in good hands with Senior QB Sean Canfield.

Buffalo +2.5 @ Temple

Not at all a sexy matchup but Turner Gill is one of the better mid-major coaches around. After the last two losses the Bulls are due for a fundamentally sound game, and against Temple that's all they should need to seal the victory. Temple's home field doesn't scare me, even with Bill Cosby in the ref's ear.

Kansas vs. Southern Miss o57

Both of these teams average over 450 yards per game and have experienced quarterbacks who don't make a lot of mistakes. Kansas's offense has been nearly perfect through 3 games, while Southern Miss has a lot to prove. I can see the spread (Kansas -13.5) going either way but in each event this one should produce a lot of points. The Jayhawks have always done me well, in the fat man I trust.

Clemson -2.5 vs. TCU

I love Clemson this year and I'm going to continue to ride the hot hand. Coach Swinney has all the talented pieces working in conjunction, and this team has moxy (witnessed by a huge road comeback against Georgia Tech). Death Valley is the hardest venue TCU will play in this year and the homefield advantage should get the Tigers going.

Vanderbilt -7 @ Rice

It's been a very slow start to the season for the Commodores, but they should be able to push around Rice sans Chase Clement. Vanderbilt should be able to rush at will against Rice's front 7, and should have their all-around way against a D giving up 45 points per game. Bobby Johnson preached patience during the first 3 weeks, here is where things turnaround for the offense.

The Green Line

My picks for the money line bets...go 2-2 and you're a winner.

Nevada +250 vs Missouri (Friday night)

North Texas +215 vs Mid Tenn State

Wyoming +200 vs UNLV

Oregon +205 vs Cal

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 3

2009-09-16T22:35:00.022-05:00

Week 1 was a crapshoot, Week 2 was watered down. In Week 3 I'm headed back to the winning format, and guaranteeing you at least 4-2.

Texas A&M -19.5 vs Utah State

Texas A&M's offenses is right at home in pass-happy Big 12, and therefore a welcome addition to the blog. QB Jerrod Johnson flew under the radar last year in spite of solid numbers (21 TDs, 10 INTs) and has a favorable matchup against his Aggie counterparts. Mike Sherman has a lot to prove to many people, so expect him to release the arsenal on the visiting team.

Auburn -7 vs West Virginia

Auburn's physical talent running the Tulsa offense? This is a gambler's dream. Two games into the Gus Malzahn era the Tigers are averaging an astonishing 572 yards and 43 points per game. As usual, there's a solid defense to back them up, and with this one at home the crowd provides an intimidating 3rd element. It all adds up to a long day for Jarrett Brown and the Mountaineers.

Iowa St -2.5 @ Kent State

I know the cyclones got pummeled last week, but you better believe Paul Rhoads will have this line tacked up in the locker room. Iowa State still has Big 12 talent, and the game will be in good hands with QB Austen Arnaud. Kent doesn't have what it takes to compete with the BCS teams (34-7 loss to BC last week) and just lost their starting tailback to boot. People remember what they last saw, which was Iowa State's worst. Buy low on Iowa State and you'll be rewarded.

Arizona St -19.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe

After an extremely dissapointing and injury-riddled 2008, the Sun Devils have a lot to prove and enough talent remaining to execute. It starts with the defense for this club, one of the best in the Pac-10 and led by 26 year old man Mike Nixon. ULM and their green QB won't be able to move the ball in this hostile environment and ASU's defense will create opportunities for Danny Sullivan to exploit. You know Dennis Erickson has money on this game - so should you.

SMU - 6 @ Washington State

It's not too often that you see Washington State getting less than a touchdown, so I'm listening to what SMU has to say. Luckily, it appears as though June Jones and his crew are turning a corner in time for this one, headed back to relavency in the football landscape. Last season Jones handed the pigskin to freshman QB Bo Levi Mitchell and threw him to to the wolves. Mitchell had his ups and downs but seems to finally be in control of Jones' run and shoot attack. I've been waiting to play the Mustangs since they hired the mad scientist - I'm hoping I'm not too early. Considering they're taking on one of the worst BCS teams in the last decade, I like my chances.

Dog of the Week

Minnesota +14 vs. California

This is a defining game for Tim Brewster. Now in his 3rd years as Gophers coach, he's got a 3-year starter at QB, a new stadium, and a team which has slowly improved each season. He welcomes a Cal team that's very talented but has tended to struggle away from the left coast the past few seasons. Expect a fired up Gophers team ready to do some damage on Cal's ranking.

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 2

2009-09-10T21:59:00.015-05:00

This week I'm bulking up 12 games. Until I find my groove, it's diversification. Week 2 is usually filled with beat-downs and I'm hoping '09 is no exception.

Lay the Points
Michigan State -14.5 vs Central Michigan D'Antonio's squad too sound for MAC antics
Northwestern -20 vs Eastern Michigan Eastern one of D-1's worst squads, Northwestern's spread offense hits you from all around.
Auburn -14 vs. Mississippi State New coordinator giving life to Auburn's O.
Texas -33 @ Wyoming The Horns rain spears on opponents like these.
Southern Miss -14.5 vs. Central Florida High powered offense backed by good coaching send George O'Leary to the Jameson well.
Tulsa -17 @ New Mexico New Mexico will be lost first half of the season, Tulsa is a machine.
BYU - 18 @ Tulane In the dome Max Hall will toss it around like D. Brees.
Nebraska -21.5 vs. Arkansas State Bo Pelini's challenge will inspire the D, Husker Nation won't accept less than a woodshed beating.
Kansas -12 @ UTEP Senior-laden Kansas won't mess around with mistake-prone UTEP and the ghost of Mike Price.

Close but not afraid to call it
Ohio -3 @ North Texas Frank Solich doesn't start seasons 0-2
Western Michigan +1.5 @ Indiana Betting against IU is a lucrative profession

Pray for the Cover
San Jose State +14 vs. Utah Spartans kill on this blog, defense will slow down Utah and senior QB might orchestrate the upset

Picks from Peter King's Ass: Vol 3.1

2009-09-09T18:37:00.002-05:00

Welcome back to another exciting year of Pick’s from Peter Kings Ass. Hopefully this year we can make you some money. At this point I’m going back through my records of last year to gather my stats. I won’t post those till next week once I’m done. The first week is always the hardest, especially because there will be a few teams that will surprise for the good and for the bad. We’ll take a stab this week but be hesitant, like Michael Vick at a dog fight.

These are the picks I like:
New England -10 vs. Buffalo
With Tom Brady back in the line up and T.O. still being a bitch, look for Brady and Co to roll through Buffalo. Bill Belichick will have his team ready to go, while the Buffalo coaching staff looks like a high school with the Turk Schonet and Dick Jauron acting like they are high schoolers.

Philadelphia -1 vs. Carolina
Donovan McNabb and Westbrook will be firing on all cylinders while take care of Peppers and the Carolina defense.

Minnesota -4 @ The Cleve
I would only hope that the Browns at least break 24 quarter touchdown less streak this week against Minnesota but who knows, if T.O.’s tweet is correct Brady Quinn might be ready to breakout but it won’t happen week 1.

Tampa Bay +6 vs. Dallas
Running backs by committee might be the thing needed to stymie the Cowboys defense, just pounding it down the defense.

Driving with Dontѐ: Suicide Picks
The first week I always just take one of the larger spread teams. They should win heads up but might not always cover, the good thing is it doesn’t matter if they cover.

Suicide Picks:
1. Baltimore
2. New Orleans
3. New England

The Epic Path to the Meineke Bowl - Vol 3 Number 1

2009-09-01T22:13:00.014-05:00

Welcome to Autumn! As usual, be weary of week 1. Along with the unknown squads, there's the intangible factor of week 1 and the always difficult to predict non-conference showdowns. Weeks 2 and 3 will have more calculated options, so plan on raising the stakes next week. Still, there are few this weekend that I really like.

NC State -4.5 vs South Carolina (Thursday 6:00 CST)
One of my picks to click this season, the Wolfpack start off in a good position to continue their hot streak from last season. Defending their home turf at night against a formidable opponent, expect to see get their best, which is at least 4.5 points better than South Carolina's. Spurrier should have never quit Florida, and the end is looming.

UTEP - 7.5 vs Buffalo (Saturday 8:00 CST)
So here's the setup. MAC team treks south of the Mason-Dixon to take on a run-and-gun Conference USA team. These situations do not typically go the MAC's way ( see Ball State/Tulsa and Western Michigan/Rice in 2008 bowl season). UTEP is also playing in their home stadium at night (a winning formula) and has an experienced quarterback to lead the charge. Bufallo had a nice run last year but lost their quarterback. Hopefully you got this one at 7, but I don't think it will matter.

Maryland + 21.5 @ California (Saturday 9:00 CST)
King Ralph Friedgen and the Terps must have frustrated their fans plenty the last few years, but I will give them this: they come to play when they're huge underdogs. They've got a savvy QB in Chris Turner and a decent amount of talent to work with. They'll probably lose to James Madison next week, but they'll be ready for this one. Use this seesaw program to your advantage this week.

Clemson -18.5 vs. Middle Tennesse State (Saturday 5:00 CST)
After burning me a few times last year, Clemson owes me. With plenty of talent and a new 39-year old up-and-coming head coach, the Tigers will come out and prove that 2008 was a fluke. Death Valley is a hard place to play, and RB CJ Spiller should erupt against a much weaker opponent. Akin to a scrimmage, this one fits into a classic winning gambling model: BCS power team laying points against mid-major, at home, early in the season.

Texas A&M - 14 vs New Mexico (Saturday 6:00 CST)
This one also fits into the aforementioned model, as the Aggies should be able to cover 2 TDs in front of the 12th man. QB Jerrod Johnson is yet another Big 12 arm who can chuck it around, and I don't expect New Mexico's secondary to handle him. New Mexico has a new coach, a completely different system, and a QB who hasn't played in 2 years. Things may get better but this isn't a good spot for them.

Hater of the week
North Texas +16.5 vs Ball State
This is not last year's Ball State - coach and QB are gone - and I really don't believe they should be laying 16.5 to anyone. Then again, North Texas was one of the worst team's in D1 last year. Still, I'll take southern 2 stars over midwestern ones. Maybe make a small play here, but for heavens sake don't tell a soul.

2009 NCAA Gamblers Guide

2009-08-16T18:04:00.029-05:00

So we find ourselves in mid-August. For most football fans this time period involves intense study of future fantasy matchups, the annual Madden purchase, and the over-reaction to NFL preseason games (what was that throw Cutler!?). Might I also suggest investing in the fund which is assured to return the best quarterly profit of the year. This goes by Betting on College Football (Nasdaq: BOCF).

This season has potential to be a very profitable one, on the basis of many known commodities on the landscape. There are many familiar faces, starting with Tim Tebow (did you know that he, not Jesus Christ, is the son of God? If you didn't know just ask any announcer in America) and my guy Sam Bradford. Moving down the food chain you'll find a multitude of experienced quarterbacks throughout all conferences. Many of these kids have done it for me before and I'm ready to send them to work one more time.

It's sad to say, but other than Minnesota I don't have a single Big 10 team on this list. No worries though - once inner conference games begin, everything will predicatably fall into place.

As a disclaimer, here are my numbers ATS over the last 3 years. These are just NCAA football bets, straight bets Against The Spread. I am not your guy for NFL, I'll leave that up to the Webmaster.

2006: 8-12-1; 40% (luckily this was in my $10 days)
2007: 27-22; 55.1%
2008: 62-43; 59.05%

This year it's 60% or bust. Here are the horses that I am hoping will take me to the feeding.

Cash Cows
OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA, and TEXAS - These teams absolutely smashed their ways through the regular season last year, and all three return their signal callers and much supporting staff. These blue chips went 12-3 ATS for me last year and there's no reason not to expect more of the same.

Rainmakers
HOUSTON - Take out the predictable Big 10 and my favorite conference to bet is C-USA. My pick this year is a familar one. QB Case Keenum returns to lead an attack which finished #2 in total offense last year in all of D1. Now that Chase Clememt of Rice has graduated, the title of "best mid-major southern QB" is his to assume. That title also affords him an unlimited buffet of southern belle box, even if they are Colt McCoy's rejects.

BAYLOR - The Houston and Texas themes continue here, starting with head coach Art Briles. He's got Baylor headed in the right direction, and year 2 of his regime will return more tangible results. QB Robert Griffin is basically Terrelle Prior without the hype, expect to hear a lot more about this kid in the coming months.

NC STATE - A program which had struggled the last few years seems to have hit its groove mid-season last year, winning 4 of their last 5 on the heels of freshman QB Russell Wilson. The first-team all ACC QB is exceptional and is just one of 7 starters returning on offense. The defense also returns 6 starters. The core is in place for the Wolfpack to carry over the momentum from last year into 2009.

SOUTHERN MISS - The Golden Eagles also closed 2008 with a bang, winning 5 in a row including a bowl win over the underrated men of Troy. Head coach Larry Fedora goes into his second year with 16 returning starters, including QB Austin Davis, the triggerman to Fedora's spread attack. Conference USA team with an explosive offense? Sign me up.

BYU - The Cougars went into 2008 with high expectations, but finishing 10-3 was considered a disappointment. Now that they're back under the radar, I expect them to revert to their 2007 form. Senior QB Max Hall has been doing this for a few years, so the potential is there for great things.

Intriguing Prospects
STANFORD - Jim Harbaugh is turning things around in Palo Alto, his third year might be the one where they break it open.

MINNESOTA - Brewster's squad got the job done for me last year (3-1 ATS), and the new open air stadium should provide motivation and a home field advantage.

FLORIDA STATE - They started to look like the FSU of old again last year, they might crack the top 10 if things go right.

UTEP - Just another high scoring mid-major with an experienced QB in the state of Texas. Take a guess about my feelings here.

KANSAS - Tood Ressing's last stand, over the hangover from 2007, 14 starters returning, don't forget about the Jayhawks.

WASHINGTON - Yes, they were winless last year...but Ty is out, Jake Locker is back, and with a new coach - who knows? At a very minimum they might cover a few large spreads.

SMU - June Jones is a mad-genius, and a founding father on which my strategy is predicated. He threw his freshman QB to the wolves last year but that might have been the best way to setup a spread-friendly 2010, something Mr. Jones clearly condones.

Just stay away, please

BALL STATE - One year wonders were exposed in the bowl game, head coach and QB gone. Just a bunch of Purdue and IU rejects left on this team.

LOUISVILLE- Team Papa John's few years in the spotlight ended 2 years ago, at this point the book has been slammed shut. Stick to hoops.

TEXAS TECH - Mike Leach's work to improve the program came to a head last year. But like many of its kind, they were proved a fraud in the bowl game. A la Purdue 2004, you had your chance and you blew it. Talk to you in 20 years.

UTAH - They'll still be solid, but don't put them on a pedestal in spite of beating down Alabama. They lost their (very underrated) QB and will have a huge target on their back this season.

I don't need the strategy guide anymore: a blog by Viper

2009-07-15T18:27:00.001-05:00

Two pirates in the all-star game that is shit. I mean Zack Duke with a 8-8 record (worst among all-star pitchers). 3.29 ERA (decent) and a wait for it ohh 65K's(shits weak) oh then there is Freddy Sanchez .316 avg (good) 6hr (ok he plays second base) 34RBI (believe it or not he is not the lowest all-star). I know every team gets one player, but this is just stupid. Trading away your players before the break is not an excuse either. The only thing I can think of is MLB is feeling bad for the Pirates and is banking that maybe if we give them hope with two all-stars it will turn one of the worst franchises in pro sports around.

Yes Dan I know that Cleveland is searching for a first championship in our life time, but even you have to admit two Pirates?

2009-07-06T22:50:00.013-05:00

Unless you have a serious problem, then sports gambling is dead until the last weekend in August. In the meantime I'm testing a more interactive approach to the college football blog. I think it's safe to say that Japan would be a 16 seed in the "All Country Fight" tournament

Post-Tournament Quips

2009-04-07T08:37:00.002-05:00

-The manner in which MSU competed against North Carolina can't be a good sign for the Michigan economy (national economy?) If you weren't aware, 2008 was a difficult year.

-Kimba Walker will get busted for point shaving before his college career is over. That or shunned by his teammates dropping such a massive dump in his shorts during the semi's.

-Scottie Reynolds can dribble fast. And in control. Pretty amazing play.

-The reason they only show Erin Andrews from the waste up is simple: Her pancake butt seen in high def can cause the shakes, induce vomiting, or just make you say YUCK and beg for Charissa Thompson.

-Blake Griffin is a rich man's Carlos Boozer. He's taller, looks to have a decent mid range jumper, and can finish better than anyone I can remember. If I were him, I'd demand a 'Griffin Boys' package, so that his brother can have a cup of coffee too.

-Please put Clark Kellogg back in the studio. Please.

-If you didn't catch the OSU / Sienna game in the first round, you missed some history. BJ Mullens got the most minutes he'll see for the next 5 yrs. (NBADL not included): 14 minutes off the bench. And he's a LOTTERY PICK. Apparently there's a real need for Kwame Brown-esque bigmen right now: Good feet, soft as shit, no defensive ability, no heart, unneccearily hot-headed.

-Baseball is here.